UVA report: Nation’s population growth is slowing

Discovery & Innovation

UVA report: Nation’s population growth is slowing

An estimated 370 million people will live in the United States in 2050, with more than 40% living in the South, according to by the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

The study shows the nation’s population increasing from 331 million in 2020 to 352 million a decade later, and to about 370 million by 2050.

The South’s share of the population is projected to grow from around 38% in 2020 to nearly 43% in 2050.

Sol Baik is a senior researcher with the Weldon Cooper Center’s Demographics Research Group and the report’s author. (Contributed photo)

The Cooper Center provides nonpartisan data, research services and training programs to local communities, state government agencies and public-sector leaders. Policymakers and elected officials often use the center’s research to make decisions.

Although the study shows the population will grow, the growth rate will continue to decline. The growth rate from 2010 to 2020 was just over 7%, but the population is expected to grow 6.3% between 2020 and 2030. That growth could decrease to just over 5% by 2050. The expected growth rate between 2040 and 2050 is about 1.8%.

“Population growth rates have generally declined since the 1960s, with a temporary increase between 1990 and 2000,” said Sol Baik, senior researcher with the Weldon Cooper Center’s Demographics Research Group and the report’s author.

“In the 2010s, about 60% of U.S. population growth came from natural increase (births minus deaths), while the remaining 40% came from net international migration. Since 2020, however, persistently low birth rates and an aging population have reduced natural increase each year, making immigration the primary driver of overall population growth,” said Qian Cai, director of the Demographics Research Group. “Unless immigration increases substantially over the next two decades, U.S. population growth is expected to remain significantly slower than in the past and at historically low levels.”

United States Population Projections

Explore projected population totals for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Hover over a state, choose one from the menu, or use the Tab key to move through the map.

Map year

Choose a state

Loading map…

Population in 2050

LowestHighest

Population projections

Select a state

Use the map or state menu to view population data.

View all population data in a table

Population totals and projections by state
State	2020	2030	2040	2050
Alabama	5,024,279	5,339,839	5,412,878	5,373,844
Alaska	733,391	743,344	728,429	703,279
Arizona	7,151,502	8,065,974	8,681,650	9,112,084
Arkansas	3,011,524	3,195,328	3,215,068	3,165,993
California	39,538,223	39,609,895	39,210,409	38,595,719
Colorado	5,773,714	6,296,547	6,780,859	7,270,621
Connecticut	3,605,944	3,744,789	3,688,100	3,549,817
Delaware	989,948	1,121,837	1,201,086	1,244,784
District of Columbia	689,545	711,078	738,622	783,737
Florida	21,538,187	25,244,539	28,084,137	30,434,570
Georgia	10,711,908	11,862,094	12,586,766	13,099,017
Hawaii	1,455,271	1,434,333	1,412,391	1,389,246
Idaho	1,839,106	2,209,482	2,518,352	2,801,687
Illinois	12,812,508	12,659,908	12,069,452	11,317,019
Indiana	6,785,528	7,140,476	7,205,602	7,151,255
Iowa	3,190,369	3,291,534	3,301,394	3,282,611
Kansas	2,937,880	3,015,116	2,985,989	2,914,591
Kentucky	4,505,836	4,696,861	4,691,675	4,608,227
Louisiana	4,657,757	4,613,700	4,464,352	4,274,738
Maine	1,362,359	1,453,504	1,457,087	1,411,145
Maryland	6,177,224	6,386,414	6,457,831	6,485,591
Massachusetts	7,029,917	7,311,140	7,432,753	7,485,241
Michigan	10,077,331	10,189,501	9,944,064	9,555,378
Minnesota	5,706,494	5,974,756	6,101,028	6,174,986
Mississippi	2,961,279	2,948,907	2,815,209	2,630,229
Missouri	6,154,913	6,368,975	6,315,808	6,153,810
Montana	1,084,225	1,200,085	1,269,387	1,314,725
Nebraska	1,961,504	2,076,116	2,137,588	2,184,233
Nevada	3,104,614	3,469,635	3,764,880	4,030,770
New Hampshire	1,377,529	1,449,038	1,456,974	1,427,285
New Jersey	9,288,994	9,792,900	9,958,108	9,999,608
New Mexico	2,117,522	2,139,653	2,089,220	2,002,492
New York	20,201,249	20,011,711	19,545,548	19,013,275
North Carolina	10,439,388	11,851,971	12,675,195	13,177,435
North Dakota	779,094	830,739	898,879	993,082
Ohio	11,799,448	12,004,450	11,778,421	11,386,615
Oklahoma	3,959,353	4,261,950	4,373,873	4,409,056
Oregon	4,237,256	4,363,781	4,469,780	4,568,663
Pennsylvania	13,002,700	13,141,792	12,874,747	12,445,346
Rhode Island	1,097,379	1,132,405	1,130,177	1,109,976
South Carolina	5,118,425	5,957,581	6,465,102	6,762,001
South Dakota	886,667	978,742	1,035,554	1,077,004
Tennessee	6,910,840	7,673,580	8,107,028	8,394,811
Texas	29,145,505	34,154,570	38,269,491	42,091,163
Utah	3,271,616	3,810,800	4,312,371	4,825,093
Vermont	643,077	648,383	632,450	605,263
Virginia	8,631,393	9,142,185	9,387,012	9,528,199
Washington	7,705,281	8,361,812	8,969,121	9,596,367
West Virginia	1,793,716	1,740,753	1,618,195	1,476,956
Wisconsin	5,893,718	6,054,966	6,001,835	5,845,859
Wyoming	576,851	598,268	590,951	570,077

The Weldon Cooper Center’s projections assume recent demographic trends will continue for the foreseeable future. Place the cursor over individual states to see their projections. (Illustration by Peyton Sorah, University Communications)

Although growth rates generally decline over the projection period, the South is projected to grow slightly faster between 2020 and 2030 than it did in the previous decade.

The South remains the fastest-growing region throughout the projection period, followed by the West. In contrast, growth in the Northeast and Midwest between 2020 and 2030 is projected to be around 2%, followed by a decline over the next 20 years.

Discovery and Innovation: Daily research. Life-changing results.

Other findings in the report include:

The Midwest’s share of the U.S. population will drop to 18.4% by 2050.
The Northeast’s share will drop to 15.4% by 2050.
The West’s share of the population will remain at about 23%.
The population of Americans 65 and older will grow to 21.2% by 2050.
The national median age is projected to be 41.9 years in 2050. Maine will have the oldest population, with a median age of 48.7 years; North Dakota will have the youngest, with a median age of 34.4 years.

“The population is projected to continue growing by 2050, but at lower rates than historically observed. After 2030, growth rates are projected to continue their downward trajectory, reflecting demographic trends, including low fertility, population aging and recent migration dynamics,” Baik said.

“The projections implicitly assume that recent demographic trends will continue and will have a ripple effect on population change in the foreseeable future,” she said.