For weeks, headlines have warned of a “super El Niño,” raising concerns about extreme weather events around the globe. But beyond the buzz, what should we really expect?
At the University of Virginia, Kevin Grise, an associate professor of environmental science, studies how large-scale climate patterns shape our daily weather.
He spoke with UVA Today about current predictions and their potential impact.
Q. Can you explain the phenomenon and what is expected this year?
A. El Niño refers to a periodic (approximately once every two to seven years) warming of ocean surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This past winter, waters there were cooler than normal (known as a La Niña event), but the La Niña event is currently weakening.
Grise’s research group focuses on atmospheric dynamics and their role in long-term climate system changes. (Contributed photo)
Forecast models predict an El Niño event developing by the summer and persisting at least through the end of the year. Some forecast models even predict the possibility of a very strong event, which some media outlets have been terming a “super” El Niño event.
However, the springtime is the least accurate time of year for predicting future El Niño events, so this forecast comes with substantial uncertainty. NOAA currently estimates that there is a 62% chance of El Niño developing this summer and warns that, despite recent headlines you may have seen, forecasts of future El Niño intensity are highly uncertain.
Q. What is the difference in ocean temperatures between normal years and El Niño years?
A. Typically, ocean surface temperatures are cooler in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean off the western coast of South America and warmer in the western tropical Pacific Ocean near Indonesia.
During El Niño years, there is less of a difference in temperature between the western and eastern tropical Pacific, as waters in the eastern Pacific become warmer than normal.
Q. Any general trends appearing over the past few years?
A. Although we have had several strong El Niño events (winters of 2015-16 and 2023-24) in the last decade, we’ve actually seen a lot of long-lived (multi-year-long) La Niña events since around the year 2000.
