By 2030, nearly half of all American adults will have obesity, .
In every single state, researchers expect at least 35% of adults to have a body mass index of 30 or higher, the threshold that defines obesity. That prediction may come as a shock, as weight loss medications like Wegovy and Zepbound become more popular and more affordable.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have been tracking obesity rates, as measured by BMI, since the 1980s, according to Cate Varney, a family medicine physician and the director of obesity medicine at UVA Health. Since then, rates of obesity have steadily trended higher.
“Then, last year, the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index showed for the first time that obesity rates were declining,” said Varney, who also teaches family medicine at the University of Virginia School of Medicine. “Everybody kind of scratched their head a bit, and we realized it correlated to when we started using GLP-1 medications.”
GLP-1 medications have changed how people eat, shop and . But Varney said one thing hasn’t changed – in fact, it has accelerated.
Cate Varney, director of obesity medicine at UVA Health, says employers can cover weight loss treatments on their insurance plans to combat climbing obesity rates. (UVA Health photo)
“The rates of severe obesity, defined as a BMI of 40 or greater, are still climbing,” she said.
Unlike being overweight – defined as a BMI of 25 to 29.9 – obesity and severe obesity are difficult to treat through individual lifestyle changes, and often require a medical intervention like bariatric surgery or GLP-1 medication.
“One of the other things to note is that the almost 50% obesity rate by 2030 does not include overweight,” Varney said. “When you look at those with both overweight and obesity, we’re looking at 75% of the population.”
The weight gain will not be distributed evenly. More women than men are projected to have severe obesity, and Black and Latino populations will have higher rates of obesity than white American adults. Some of the poorest states in the country are expected to have a greater proportion of adults with obesity.
“This is one of the disparities we talk about in obesity medicine. In food deserts – places where it is harder to access food – we actually have higher rates of obesity. Food that is more nutritionally dense and has higher calories tends to be mass-produced and therefore cheaper, so it contributes to higher rates of obesity,” Varney said.
Body mass index is a ratio comparing a person’s height to their weight and was not originally intended as a measure of health. Still, it provides clinicians with valuable information and can indicate a person’s relative likelihood to develop certain medical conditions.
